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Kharif crops in India require monsoonal rains for their growth. An early quantitative evaluation for the Monsoon season helps farmers to prepare the fields and estimate the quantity and quality of seeds to be sowed.
Monsoon Onset, 2015
On April 16, 2015, Skymet released its Monsoon foreshadow, indicating the coming of Monsoon 2015 to be ‘normal’. Skymet predicted early onset of Monsoon this year on April 22. According to the latest updates, Monsoon this year will arrive on time over Andaman Sea, between May 18 and 20. Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach Kerala between May 27 and 29, simultaneously covering some parts of Northeast India.
Most parts of South India and entire northeastern region will be covered between June 6 and 9. Thereafter, the Monsoon surge is expected to slow down and reach Mumbai in the western coast and Kolkata on eastern side between June 11 and 14. Most parts of Central and East India will be covered by the third week, between June 22 and 24. Except for west Rajasthan, Southwest Monsoon will cover most parts of the country between July 2 and 5. Monsoon will advance further and cover the entire country on or before July 15.
Correlation between onset and performance of Monsoon
Historically, Monsoon in India has been of truant nature. The four-month long Monsoon season, running from June to September, brings 70% of the country's annual rainfall. It holds a Long Period Average (LPA) of 89 cm of rain but never behaves in a normal manner. The onset date of Monsoon in India is generally June 1, but invariably it defies that date.
The onset of Monsoon does not have any connection with its further progress, advancement and performance. It is just a step ahead and the story Monsoon to hit Kerala on time this year, will explain this statement.
El Nino and Monsoon 2015
This year performance of Southwest Monsoon is being watched under the scare of El Nino, which is invariably linked with poor Monsoon in India. However, Skymet still assess the Monsoon to be normal, after evaluating other oceanic parameters and atmospheric conditions.
The likely onset dates for some important cities are as follows.
Also read: Skymet foreshadows normal Monsoon for India in 2015
For more updates on Monsoon and Monsoon related stories, click here.
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