October rains for Mumbai drop significantly and settle at 89 mm for the entire month. Generally, the withdrawal from Mumbai takes place on October 1, but this year, along with other parts, it has been delayed here as well.
Therefore, till the withdrawal commences and completes, Mumbai can see some showers, i.e. at least until the first half of October.
There has been generally dry weather for the last three days. However, today morning, Mumbai rains made an appearance, with many parts of the city witnessing good rains. In fact, in three hours time between 8:30 and 11:30 am, Mumbai saw 13 mm of rainfall.
Usually, October rains have very large variation and is linked with the time of Monsoon withdrawal. In 2018, the city saw 3.8 mm only in entire October while other years, even three digits rains have been seen.
The retreating Monsoon gives sporadic showers over the city, which even end up lashing the city in a short duration only, before Southwest Monsoon finally clears away.
For the next one week or so, Mumbai can expect passing rains on a routine basis. This is because, a Cyclonic Circulation is over Tamil Nadu from which a trough is extending northwards up to Goa and Konkan region. In fact, the circulation is shifting northwards, and moving towards Arabian Sea, and may be seen off the coast of Konkan and Goa regions around October 8 and will move to the sea the next day.
Along with this, the withdrawal pattern, i.e. the Anti Cyclone is yet to establish but signs have started to appear. In the interim period, winds become north easterlies/easterlies over Mumbai.
Meanwhile, winds from the circulation are westerlies, thus, a kind of a convergence zone has developed due to the merger of winds from different direction. Mumbai is on the peripherals of the convergence but Mumbai and adjoining areas including Madhya Maharashtra, and Konkan region will see on and off rains for the coming week.
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Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com
