OLR and wind field match criteria, rainfall next as Monsoon 2019 prepares to hit Kerala in 72 hrs

June 5, 2019 3:06 PM|

Rain in India

Slowly and steadily,Southwest Monsoon 2019is inching closer to make onset over Kerala. Initial indications have already started developing in Arabian Sea. All thanks to the formation of a cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Lakshadweep Islands.

In fact, Monsoon surge has advanced further on Wednesday and covered parts of Sri Lanka.  At present, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is running through Latitude 7°N/Longitude 60°E, Latitude 7°N/Longitude 70°E, Katunayake, Latitude 11°N/Longitude 87°E, Latitude 13°N/Longitude 89°E and Latitude 17°N/Long. 95°E.

NLM

As reiterated by Skymet Weather, there are primarily three criteria which are required to be fulfilled before declaring the onset ofMonsoon. These areOutgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR), wind field and rainfall.

Now, the good news is that out of these three, two criteria have been finally met. As on June 4, the OLR values are settling well below the threshold value of 200 wm^2 in the area between Latitude 5-10°N and Longitude 70-75°E.

OLR Values

Another criterion of wind field is already aligning both in terms of field as well as speed. The winds have already become westerly and are blowing at the speed of 30 kmph in the area defined by Latitude 5-10°N and Longitude 70-80°E, which is the required speed. In fact, in wake of cross equatorial flow strengthening further on account of likely low pressure area in Arabian Sea, winds speed would also pick up pace.

Meanwhile, the depth of westerlies is also around required height of 600 hpa in the area bounded by Latitude 10°N and Longitude 55-80°E.

The only criterion to now met is the rainfall, wherein 60% of the enlisted 14 stations in Kerala, Lakshadweep Islands and Coastal Karnataka must record rainfall for two consecutive days to the tune of 2.5 mm each.

As per weathermen, we can expect a low pressure area in Southeast Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours. It would be travelling in close proximity of the West Coast, which would finally increase thereafter.

Skymet Weather has already predicted onset ofMonsoonto be likely around June 7, with an error -margin of +/- 2 days. Looking at the weather conditions, Monsoon surge is likely to hit Kerala during the next 48-72 hours.

Image Credit: NDTV

Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com

Similar Articles

thumbnail image
पश्चिमी विक्षोभ लगातार सक्रिय, हिमालयी राज्यों में बारिश और बर्फबारी की चेतावनी

इस बार मार्च में भी पश्चिमी विक्षोभ सक्रिय बना हुआ है, जिससे पहाड़ी और मैदानी क्षेत्रों दोनों में प्रभाव देखने को मिलेगा। जहां हिमालयी राज्यों में बर्फबारी की कमी दूर होगी, वहीं उत्तर भारत के किसान ओलावृष्टि और बारिश के कारण सतर्कता बरतने की जरूरत होगी।

posted on:
thumbnail image
Series of Western Disturbances to Bring Rain and Snow to Western Himalayas

Heavy rain and snowfall is likely over the Western Himalayas for the next few days. Northern plains, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of Rajasthan, may see scattered rain during Holi (March 14), with a chance of isolated hailstorms. Farmers should stay alert, as hail could impact standing crops.

posted on:
thumbnail image
[Hindi] सम्पूर्ण भारत का मार्च 12, 2025 का मौसम पूर्वानुमान

अगले 24 घंटे के दौरान सिक्किम, अरुणाचल प्रदेश, असम, मेघालय, नागालैंड, अंडमान और निकोबार द्वीपसमूह, केरल और लक्षद्वीप में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश और गरज के साथ बौछारें पड़ सकती हैं।सिक्किम और उत्तराखंड में भी हल्की बारिश और बर्फबारी हो सकती है। तमिलनाडु और पंजाब में हल्की बारिश होने की संभावना है।

posted on:
thumbnail image
Weather update and forecast for March 12 across India

During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain and snowfall is possible over the Western Himalayan region. Light rain is possible over North Punjab, Sikkim, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

posted on: