Post monsoon season between October and December is the most favourite for tropical cyclones in the Indian Seas. Either side of the coastline, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, are the active basins for cyclogenesis, more than the pre monsoon season. October and November have equitable distribution of hosting post monsoon storms, more so over Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea.
Entire coastline of Indian Sub continent becomes vulnerable to cyclone strike from October to December. However, threat perception of cyclone strike is much less along the West Coast than the East Coast. Bangladesh and Myanmar have fair number of storms breaching their shore, more so in October and November. Majority of the tropical storms in the Arabian Sea head for Yemen, Oman and Somalia. However, freak storms do crash the coastline of Gujarat and Konkan region.
Since 2010, total of 13 tropical cyclones have emerged in the Indian Seas during the month of November. Earlier, no storm formed during this month in 2012, 2014 & 2021. Year 2022 will be the 1st consecutive year to miss the mark and go scot free without the cyclone.
During 2010 to 2022, equal number of storms have formed in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. None of these cyclones had direct hit anywhere along the West Coast. Cyclone Maha in Nov 2019, a Cat-III equivalent storm, was the only exception which came dangerously close but weakened to a tropical depression before hitting Gujarat coast. Another exception was cyclone Gaza of 2018, a Cat-1 storm which formed over Bay of Bengal and crossed over to the Arabian Sea, travelling across South Peninsula.
November 2022 has witnessed only one depression over Bay of Bengal on 20th Nov and that too rapidly weakened off Tamil Nadu coast. Earlier, month of October 2022 observed a cyclonic storm Sitrang over Bay of Bengal between Oct 22 and Oct 25. The storm made landfall over Bangla Desh on 24th Oct 2022. This was the 1st storm to hit Bangladesh since cyclone Mora in 2017, albeit of pre monsoon season.
Oceanic state do not seem to be favouring a cyclonic storm in the Indian Seas during the remaining days of November. Cyclonic circulation coming up over North Andaman Sea on 24th Nov is not likely to sharpen further. It may not even become a low pressure area and fizzle out over the sea, off Myanmar coast with in 2-3 days.
