Southwest monsoon is now showing signs of withdrawal from Delhi/NCR, hills of North India and some more parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana. In this scenario, there are hardly any chances of recovery for the rain deficit sub-divisions of Punjab; Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.
While for rest of the country there has been ups and down throughout the season, these three divisions remained deficit. In the beginning of the season cumulative rain deficit was 43%, which reduced to 22% by the end of July and 17%, the next month. On the other hand, the cumulative rain deficit in the three sub-divisions of Northwest India was scanty in the beginning of the season and till date rain deficiency remains highly deficit, exceeding 50%.
Records available with Skymet Meteorology Division in India suggests that the three sub-divisions in consideration have witnessed below normal rain since 2005 barring just once in 2008. In the drought year of 2009, Punjab was deficit by 34%, Haryana 35% and West Uttar Pradesh 43% when the country was deficit by 22%.
In 2007, the country’s LPA was 106 mm of rain, i.e. excess of 6% rains, but these sub-divisions were still deficit by more than 30%.
The table below, showing percentages of rainfall distribution, would substantiate these facts.
| Year | Punjab | Haryana | West Uttar Pradesh | Country |
| 2013 | -2% | -22% | -1% | +6% |
| 2012 | -46% | -39% | -29% | -7% |
| 2011 | -7% | -19% | -6% | +2% |
| 2010 | -7% | +21% | 0 | +2% |
| 2009 | -34% | -35% | -43% | -22% |
| 2008 | +20% | +14% | +3% | -2% |
| 2007 | -32% | -33% | -39% | +6 |
| 2006 | -13% | -39% | -43% | -1% |
| 2005 | -11% | +1% | -11% | -1% |
The present scenario is the worst in last 10 years, including the drought year.
Punjab has been one of the worst rainfall deficit sub-divisions in India since the onset of Monsoon. The month of June was 51% deficit, July 59% deficit and August was the worst with a whopping deficit of 75%. At present the deficit stands at 48%. In this state some districts are deficient to the tune of 80%, Barnala is deficit by 81%, Mansa 69%, and Patiala 60%.
In the sub-division of Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, rain deficiency is even worse at 55%. Out of 21 districts of the state, 9 are scanty. Fatehabad is deficit by 70%, Sonipat 69%, Kurukshetra 65% and Rohtak 80%.
In West Uttar Pradesh, Agra is 61% deficit, Auraiya 68% and Badaun 65%.
Agriculture affected in Punjab and Haryana
The present dire situation has led to stressed crops, affected yields, increased cost of 
cultivation and is expected to have a cascading effect for the next season of Rabi crops. Under a clear sky and sunny weather, the irrigated fields dry out fast and thus, increasing the cost of cultivation. The canals and tube wells have been drained out already and state governments have declared drought conditions.
Though these states are well-off in terms of irrigation facilities but nothing can be compared to natural resources and good amounts of rainfall.
