Monsoon in India started on a poor note this year, with the national cumulative deficit being 43% in June, 22% in July and 17% in August. At present the deficit is around 11%. Bearing the brunt of weak Monsoon is the northeast region, which is observing a rainfall deficit of 15 per cent.
The region includes states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura. As on 14th September, the rainfall is still deficit in most of these northeastern states. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (NMMT) are observing a deficit of 30%, while Assam and Meghalaya are relatively better, with 18 per cent behind the normal average. Arunachal Pradesh is the only state to surpass the normal with surplus of one per cent till now.
So far, Guwahati has received 43.5 mm of rainfall against September normal of 194.4 mm. Meanwhile Agartala and Imphal have observed 18.2 mm and 22.1 mm of rainfall against the normal of 111.5 mm and 227.6 mm, respectively.
The region had observed some good rainfall on the 1st and 2nd of September due to movement of effective active western disturbance along the Himalayan region. However, the rainfall reduced significantly 3rd September onwards and the region is presently facing a dry spell, except a few pockets adjacent to the Himalayan region.
Northeast India generally observes heavy rain before the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon during the last week of September. This time also, heavy showers are expected 19th of September onwards for a couple of days, according to the Skymet Meteorology Division in India. However, noting the fact that normal average rainfall is too high, it is unlikely that these heavy spell will cover the deficit.
According to Skymet the region including Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh will experience scattered moderate rainfall in next 72 hours with a gradual increase in intensity. The day temperature in the region is staying marginally above normal due to scarcity of rain over the area. However, it is likely to come down to normal or below normal in coming days. The maximum temperature for Guwahati, Shilong, Imphal and Agartala recorded on Saturday are 36°C, 24.1°C, 32.2°C and 32.8°C, respectively, although the minimum temperature is close to normal.
