So far from October, most of the states such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Interior Karnataka and Kerala are highly rain deficient.
According to Skymet Weather, we do not expect any significant increase in the rain activity over these states. Easterly wave prevailing over the region continues to be weak and moreover, no weather system is likely to develop in Bay of Bengal that could enhance the rainfall.
As per the long-range forecast models at Skymet Weather, there may be some scattered showers during the first and third week of December but these spells will be light to moderate only.
November is considered to be the rainiest month of the season. Moreover, Tamil Nadu including Chennai receives more than 50% of its annual rainfall during this time.
The first two months of the season, i.e. later parts of October and November, are considered to be most favourable time for the development of cyclones. However, we have not seen any significant weather system till now. Though, Cyclone Kyant had developed during the first week of November, but it failed to give any significant rain over Peninsular India.
Co-relation between Northeast Monsoon and El-Nino/ La-Nina
The co-relation between El-Nino/La-Nina and Northeast Monsoon has not been widely researched as in the case with Southwest Monsoon.
But generally, it has been observed that the Northeast Monsoon remains much active during El-Nino years. However, one cannot establish any positive relation based on this observation.
As per a research by IITM, relation between El-Nino and Northeast Monsoon had fluctuated enough during the period of 1901 and 2000. The relation was positive and strong from 1930-1950, however, it became weak for the next two and half decade till 1975. But since 1976, the relationship picked up again and became strong again. Hence, there is no direct co relation between the two weather phenomena.
Similarly, during the La-Nina season, we have seen that Northeast Monsoon remains weak to normal but in rare circumstances it has resulted in excess also.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com