More than half of the Northeast Monsoon has passed. South Peninsula is still rain deficient by 15%. Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka are in the deficient rain category. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Lakshadweep are in the normal rain category. Kerala as well as Andaman and Nicobar Islands are in the excess rain category. Therefore, we can say that northeast monsoon rains in 2023 are below normal.
We have not seen active to vigorous monsoon conditions anywhere in the South Peninsula, except the north coast of Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh recently. The heavy to very heavy downpour over coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and North coast of Tamil Nadu was in the wake of cyclone Michaung.
A low-pressure area has formed over the southeast Arabian Sea which will pull the winds from the Bay of Bengal. With the strengthening of the northeasterly winds rain activities may also intensify over parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep. There may be moderate rains with one or two heavy spells, but a hefty downpour is ruled out. The Northeast monsoon surge will be short-lived and may not improve the rain statistics of the South Peninsula. Thus, we can say that the Northeast monsoon will end in deficiency for many southern states.
