After much speculations, Northeast Monsoon finally made an onset on Thursday. This year, Northeast Monsoon 2018 kept playing hide and seek with the country right from the beginning of the October. Right from the probabilities of making earliest onset, it made the most delayed onset.
With this, rains have also increased significantly across Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. In fact, conditions are favourable for Monsoon to cover all the five sub-divisions in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Northeast Monsoon affects only five sub-divisions of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Despite absence of strong Monsoon current, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which are the main beneficiaries has performed satisfactorily in in October. Kerala ended with surplus of 4%, while Tamil Nadu was marginally below normal by 12%.
Although it made a delayed onset, Northeast Monsoon still seems to be a promising one. According to Skymet Weather, there are several other factors contributing towards this.
First one is the likely arrival of El Niño. As per weathermen, this is year is likely to be an El Niño year. This weather phenomenon is linked with normal or above normal rainfall during the Northeast Monsoon. However, it is not written document.
Secondly, weather models are indicating towards series of weather systems. At present, Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is very active and these back to back weather systems are result of the same.
Third and the final one is Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is coming the favourable zone soon. First week of November will see MJO entering in the neighbourhood region and finally in Indian Ocean during the second week of November. MJO, whenever churning in Indian waters, is known for enhancing the rains.
Hence, lets keep our fingers crossed as the Northeast Monsoon kicks off its journey.
Image Credits – White Mountain Independent
Any information taken from here should be credited to Skymet Weather
