Northeast monsoon has mostly been active over parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, so far. Rains have been patchy, albeit heavy occasionally, over Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Opening monsoon bursts have generally remained truant over South Interior Karnataka. Although, the rains lashing all the 5 sub-divisions with similar strength and spread may not be a true pattern, but couple of them, at a time, remains absolutely in order.
Cyclonic circulations and easterly waves emerging over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay of Bengal and travelling across up to Southwest Bay and deep inland over South Peninsula are the normal drivers of monsoon activity. Bay of Bengal has remained an active basin, but the weather systems have tracked south of their normal position. Therefore, the weather activity has remained limited to Sri Lanka and some pockets of Tamil Nadu and South Kerala.
Presently, there are 2 cyclonic circulations in the close proximity of coastline of South Peninsula on either side. Cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea and Coastal Kerala is gradually moving away deep over central parts of South Arabian Sea. The other one over Southwest Bay and Sri Lanka is also tracking similar route.
Active monsoon conditions may prevail today over most parts of Tamil Nadu and shift over Kerala and adjoining parts of interior Tamil Nadu, tomorrow. Weather activity will shrink in spread and intensity on the following 2 days, on 05th and 06th Nov. Further, light and minimal weather activity is expected on 07th and 08th Nov.
