Northeast Monsoon 2018 has been playing hide and seek with the country ever since the beginning of the October. Right from the probabilities of making earliest onset, it is now heading towards most delayed onset.
The Southwest Monsoon 2018 had started its withdrawal very late on September 28 but it was at a rapid pace. In about one week’s time, Monsoon had withdrawn from entire Northwest, East and Central India.
At that point it seemed that Northeast Monsoon would made an early onset during the second week of October itself. If this would have happened, it would have been earliest onset in the recent history.
However, Cyclone Titli in Bay of Bengal changed the dynamics and its emergence halted the withdrawal of Monsoon. In fact, withdrawal line of Monsoon remained stagnant for good 10 days.
Around October 20, withdrawal of Monsoon started again, making conditions favourable once again for Northeast Monsoon to make onset during the last week of the month. However, once again the emergence of probable low pressure area in Bay of Bengal have changed the dynamics.
Presently seen as a cyclonic circulation over North Andaman Sea, the system has been continuously getting more marked. It is likely to induce a low pressure area by October 29.
According to weathermen, the formation of the weather system has affected the Monsoon pattern once again. Although Monsoon system is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal but this system has changed the wind direction at present i.e. influencing the wind stream over Tamil Nadu.
With this, we now have to wait for this system to fizzle out, which would not happen anytime before the beginning of November. Thereafter, we can expect Northeast Monsoon to make onset during the first week of November.
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