Southwest monsoon rains have not been in excess at all, at least in the last ten years. Factually, the deficiency has been varying anywhere from 10% to 30% and occasionally even more. The bad monsoon year like 2009 and below normal rains in 2012 understandably get accounted for poor rains over Northeast India. However, the best of the monsoon year like 2013 left an overall deficiency exceeding 30% over Northeast India. Visible shift in the rainfall pattern along with skewed spacial distribution calls for identification and ascertaining factors leading to the anomaly.
It is observed that Pre- Monsoon deficit rains over Northeast India get invariably carried forward and quite often are indicative of below normal rainfall in the Southwest monsoon season. Year 2014 seems no different from the previous years. The post winter rains, so far, over the region remain highly deficit. Additionally, the record breaking high temperatures and the prolonged dry spell is casting shadow, possibly on the performance of monsoon in the coming months. Skymet Meteorology Division in India, had earlier published an article `Northeast India Boils` highlighting oppressive heat over these parts.
Here are the rainfall figures in millimeters for March and April 2014 for few stations in this area:
| STATION | Normal rain in March | Actual rain in March | Normal rain in April | Actual rain in April(1-23rd) |
| Guwahati | 51 | 9 | 159 | 16 |
| Dibrugarh | 106 | 26 | 230 | 24 |
| Lakhimpur | 85 | 29 | 207 | 27 |
| Silchar | 153 | 31 | 329 | 120 |
| Tejpur | 41 | 19 | 157 | 22 |
| Imphal | 92 | 34 | 133 | 21 |
This clearly goes on to show that rainfall deficiency is alarming. However, fresh spell of rain is expected in the last few days of April, keeping hopes alive of rainfall deficit being covered up.
picture courtesy- dailymail.co.uk