The northeastern states of India especially Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh have been witnessing widespread rain and thundershower activities from the last four to five days. In fact, Cherrapunji in Meghalaya is continuously recording heavy 3-digit rainfall activity since the last three days.
The reason for these weather activities has been attributed to the cyclonic circulation persisting over Assam and a trough extending from East Bihar to Manipur. Moreover, enough moisture feed is available from Bay of Bengal.
Now, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm 'FANI' over West central Bay of Bengal has moved north/northeastwards, coming closure to the Indian coast. It is centered near Latitude 17.3°N and Longitude 84.8°E, about 300 Km south-southwest of Puri, Odisha, 150 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh and 500 km south-southwest of Digha, West Bengal.
Fani is expected to make landfall over Odisha coast near Puri by the morning or the forenoon hours of May 3, with maximum sustained wind speed of 170-180 Kmph gusting to 200 Kmph.
In wake of cyclone Fani, winds will converge around that weather system, leading to decrease in moisture feed over the northeastern states. But after making landfall, the cyclone will continue its journey in northeast direction towards the northeastern states and reach over Assam as a Depression on May 5.
Between May 4 and 5, we expect heavy to very heavy rains over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya. Along with this, moderate to heavy rains will also lash rest of Northeast India. These rains will be accompanied with violent thunderstorm activities and intense lightning strikes.
These rains will be of destructive nature as they have the potential to trigger flash floods and water logging at many places. The terrain of northeast India is such that whenever there are very heavy rains it leads to local floods.
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