Normally, the Western Disturbance forms over Caspian Sea and Red Sea, moves in an easterly direction toward Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and thence toward North India.
October to February is the most favoured season for Western Disturbance to affect the Western Himalayas and Northern Plains of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and North Rajasthan. Usually around this time, an induced low pressure develops over Central Pakistan and Rajasthan. Together these two systems give rain and snow over the hilly states and northern plains.
Though one after another Western Disturbance has approached but they continued to remain in the higher latitude. During winters, Western Disturbances tend to travel towards the lower latitude and affect Pakistan and India.
At present, the Western Disturbance over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir is moving away. This may bring some cool winds over the hilly states and northern plains. With this, drop in morning temperatures are expected with scattered fog over the areas.
Another fresh Western Disturbance is likely to approach Jammu and Kashmir by November 29. With this, the higher reaches may receive scattered snowfall activity and further rise in temperatures will be observed over entire North India.
Due to frequent Western Disturbances, one after the other, the plains may not be witnessing the cool effect in the coming days.
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