India might get normal Monsoon rainfall at 102 per cent of long-period average during June-September this year, noted a just concluded ASSOCHAM-Skymet Weather joint study.
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“However some pockets that might be deficient (by a narrow margin) include Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Marathwada, Rayalseema, South Interior Karnataka, North Tamil Nadu and parts of the North East,” noted a study titled ‘Monsoon 2015: Agri-business Risk or Opportunity,’ conducted by The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) and weather forecasting company Skymet.
“A devolving El Nino in Monsoon 2015 will most probably not impact it negatively as droughts seem to happen where there is an evolving El Nino episode,” said Mr D.S. Rawat, secretary general of ASSOCHAM while releasing the findings of the study.
“Thus forecast of normal Monsoon this year seems well distributed uniformly throughout the country,” said Mr Rawat.
“Chance of a back to back drought is three per cent (2014 was a mild meteorological drought), besides there is still no clear signal about the emergence of an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during Monsoon,” said Mr Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet.
On the unseasonal rains this month, the study said: “More wet weather was in the offing in April and the damage to the Rabi crop would continue. A major rainfall spell is expected in the first week of April in North India.”
Connectivity and weather are the two gambles that Indian farmers face today. If Skymet collaborates with farmers and organization to mitigate these agri risks by forecasting in advance, a lot of damage to Indian economy can be averted,” said Mr. Pawanexh Kohli , Chief Advisor, NCCD.
Unseasonal rains this month have destroyed standing rabi crop in various states across the country and has led to the opposition demanding a relief package from the government.
"A major rainfall spell is expected in the first week of April in North India,” said Mr Singh, Skymet.
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