The national capital Delhi has been witnessing an extended dry spell. After having a sapless December, the first half of January also followed the same track. It is rather unusual to have dry spells for over 45 days, at a stretch. The last measurable rains were recorded only at fag end of November 2023. There are no signs of winter showers visiting Delhi, anytime soon. Dense fog disrupting travel and cold sweeps troubling the common man, has been stealing the highlights, this season. No let up anywhere on the horizon.
The month of Jan 2024 looks to be in the same groove, as Jan 2023. Last year also, there was only a trace of rainfall in the first half of the month. It rained significantly only on one day, 29th Jan 2023 which impaired the ‘beating the retreat’ ceremony. There have been a few other occasions in the past wherein the first half of January remained dry, as so happened in 2018. Jan 2018 had rained only one day with a monthly rainfall of just 4mm. There was zero rainfall recorded in Jan 2004 and less than 1mm in 2006 & 2011. Intense dry cold invariably grips Delhi/ NCR on such occasions. The minimum temperature had plunged to 1.9°C on 02nd Jan 2008 and 0.2°C on 08th Jan 2006. Last year, the lowest minimum dipped to 1.4°C on 16th Jan. This year, despite the intense cold, the minimum temperature is yet to breach the 2°C mark. The lowest temperature, so far, in this season stands at 3.3°C recorded on 15th Jan 2024.
There is no likelihood of any rains for Delhi in the next 10 days or so. No active western disturbance is approaching even the northern mountains during this period. There are precursors of a decent western disturbance arriving in Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh on around 26th Jan 2024. This might as well dump some snow in the mountains around that time. There are no conclusive leads so far, for any useful impact on the plains, as well. Precision forecast on and around Republic Day will need an observation period of 48 hours or so.
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