April and May are the most probable months for cyclogenesis in the Indian Seas. The month of May has a bigger chance of cyclones than April. But, the Indian Seas have remained devoid of any cyclonic activity, so far. As the scheduled arrival of the monsoon on the mainland is 01st June, the cyclones forming in June are considered ‘monsoon cyclones’ like it happened last year with Extremely Severe Cyclonic Strom ‘Biparjoy’ over the Arabian Sea. Barely, two weeks of pre-monsoon season left and the wait gets longer for the maiden storm of the season.
The Bay of Bengal hosts more storms than the Arabian Sea. This trend, as such, may change in the coming years, as the Arabian Sea is getting persistently warmer than the Bay of Bengal. The Bay of Bengal witnessed one storm each, in the month of May, during the last four years. In 2020, Amphan struck West Bengal, Yaas made landfall at Dhamra (Odisha) in 2021, Asani weakened in the sea itself, off the Andhra Pradesh coast in 2022 and Mocha struck Sittwe (Myanmar) in 2023. The last cyclone over the Arabian Sea in the month of May was ‘Tauktae’ in 2021, crossing the Gujarat coast, near Una-Diu.
In the last 11 years, between 2013 and 2023, seven storms formed over the Bay of Bengal in the month of May. Three of them struck Chittagong, one crossed Myanmar, and one each headed for West Bengal, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. The Arabian Sea has hosted only 2 storms during this period. ‘Tauktae’ struck Gujarat and ‘Sagar’ sailed far from the Indian coast to batter Somalia, as a weakened system. The Indian Seas did not see a single storm in pre-monsoon in 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2019.
No storm has come up so far, on either side of the coastline. Looks like, it may be a repeat of ‘no show’, like the earlier four years. There is a small vortex forming over Thailand, by the end of this week. This will enter the North Andaman Sea, across the Gulf of Martaban and Arakan Coast, on 20th May. Possibly, under its influence, the monsoon stream is advancing over the Bay Islands and Southeast Bay of Bengal, around that time. The vortex is likely to track closer to the Arakan Coast and unlikely to come over the deep sea. If so, Indian Seas may not find a cyclonic storm in the pre-monsoon season of 2024.