Pre-Monsoon tropical storms form in the Indian sea in April and May. Some of these do come up till the middle of June, till the onset of monsoon becomes firm over Peninsular India. Last year, one such storm ‘Biparjoy’, an extremely severe cyclonic storm, raged over the Arabian Sea in June and struck with all its might, the Gujarat coast, crossing Naliya on 16th June 2023.
Pre-monsoon storms are more frequent in May, as compared to April. Also, their number is bigger over the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea. In the month of April, the storms over the Bay of Bengal form between 8°N and 13°N and east of 85°E. Predominantly, these originate over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. These storms initially move northwest and then recurve to head for Myanmar and Bangladesh. There are some exceptions, as the storms are known for defying the norms. These systems deviate from the normal tracks and vitiate the timelines, as well. The storms originating over the Arabian Sea follow similar tracks, moving northwest first and thereafter the entire coastline from Gujarat to Pakistan and Oman- Yemen to Somali coast is open for strike.
No storm has formed in the Indian seas in the month of April, for the last 5 years. The last in the list was an extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ over the Bay of Bengal in April 2019. Fani was a Cat-V equivalent storm, that formed on 26th April 2019. The cyclone had a long sea travel and struck Odisha, crossing the coast near Puri on 03rd May 2019. Between 2020 and 2024, no storm has emerged in April, on either side of our coastline. Since 2009, only three cyclones originated over the Indian Seas in April and all three over the Bay of Bengal. Storm ‘Bijli’-2009, ‘Maarutha’-2017 and ‘fani’-2019 came up over the Bay of Bengal and struck Bangladesh, Myanmar and India, respectively. Bijli and Maarutha were rather mild storms as compared to Fani.
The month of May is more familiar with the cyclones for the Indian region. Last year, an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Mocha’ evolved over the Bay of Bengal. After a long sea travel, the storm headed for Myanmar and crossed the coast near Sittwe, on 14 May 2023. Conditions are not looking favourable for any cyclone in the Indian seas, during the first half of May. Cyclonic storms in the second half of May, if any, clash with disturbing the cross-equatorial flow, a precursor to the onset of the monsoon stream.