The capital city witnessed a fair amount of monsoon activity till last weekend. Saturday and Sunday, along with Rakshabandhan on Monday stayed quiet. It was very much on the expected lines and the same pattern will go on during this week. Notwithstanding, the capital has already achieved its monthly quota and any more activity will be a bonus to the total rainfall.
Delhi observed a prolonged spell of monsoon activity during the first half of August. Courtesy, the seasonal monsoon trough maintaining close proximity and persistent cyclonic circulation over Northeast Rajasthan, base observatory Safdarjung, crossed its monthly rainfall target of 233.1mm, quite easily. Many a time, Delhi has struggled to make it in the rainiest month, in the last decade or so.
The monsoon trough is the main driver for seasonal activity. As it is, in its normal position also, the trough remains close to Delhi. It is the north-south oscillation of the trough triggering weather activity. The surface position of the monsoon trough, which invariably gets mentioned while marking its location, actually has very little significance. The frictional forces remain quite dominant at least till the height of 3,000 feet. Accordingly, the position of the monsoon trough at and above 5,000 feet makes more sense, to realise weather activity.
Presently, the trough at this level has shifted north of Delhi, albeit not very far. Still, any hefty activity is unlikely over the next one week or may even extend till the month's end. A monsoon low pressure, supported by cyclonic circulation is marked over South Bangladesh and Gangetic West Bengal. The low has been meandering over the area for the last few days. It is likely to move west-northwest slowly and come over the eastern states after 48 hours. Thereafter, it will move westward and reach Madhya Pradesh and the neighbourhood on 23-24 August. This will be the time when the monsoon trough will shift southward. There could be a marginal uptick in the weather activity at that time. As this system moves quickly westward over Rajasthan and Gujarat, the monsoon trough will shift far to the south of Delhi. Once again, this condition will not be favourable for any intensification of weather activity over Delhi and its suburbs. Delhi/NCR will have to suffice with mild weather activity, quite likely till the month's end.
Image Courtesy: Hindustan Times