April 2022 has gone down the records like the preceding years 2020 & 2021 without any cyclone developing over the Indian Seas. Cyclone threat did come up during 2nd week of April but fizzled out under unfavourable environmental conditions.
The remaining days of April 2022 stand ghost of a chance to find a tropical storm, anywhere on either side of the coastline. Broadly speaking, there is no storm over the global oceans as of now, albeit an uncommon fete to witness at this point of time.
Cyclonic storms over the Indian basins are extremely rare in March and remain scarce in April as well. Between 2011 and 2022, only 2 tropical storms developed over the Indian Seas, incidentally both over Bay of Bengal(BoB). The 1st cyclone ‘Maarutha’ was a weak tropical storm striking Myanmar on 16thApril 2017 near Sandoway.
However, the other cyclone ‘Fani’ was a powerful and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm striking Odisha, near Puri on 03rdMay 2019. Most storms in April head for Myanmar and Bangladesh and freak one, like Fani, threaten Indian coastline.
Generation of a storm over the oceanic surface is a complex process. It is a combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, streaming in tandem to commence cyclogenesis. It is never a win-win situation amongst all the parameters to support cyclone formation.
The choice always remains for a judicious mix of heat potential, depth of moist layer, vertical wind shear and convective instability. Passage of MJO across the area of influence, may be coincidental to accentuate and support formation of cyclonic disturbances.
The chances of having a storm in the Indian Seas during pre monsoon season now roll over to May. Over the last 2 years, significant tropical storms, including super cyclone ‘Amphan’ developed in the month of May. Nisarga and Tauktae sailed over warm waters of the Arabian Sea and Amphan and Yaas battered the east coast ravaging West Bengal and Odisha.
Between 2011 and 2019, only 2 storms developed over the Arabian Sea, both in 2018 and rest of the time, the ocean bed was dormant in the month of May. Tropical storm Sagar headed for Somalia and Mekunu made landfall in Oman. During the same period, BoB witnessed 3 tropical storms : Viyaru (2013), Roanu (2016), Mora (2017). All the 3 storms struck Bangladesh near Chittagong. Chances of having a storm over BoB seem bigger than the Arabian Sea during 1st fortnight of May 2022.
