It is almost 10 days, since the onset of the monsoon in Mumbai. There was a semblance of a typical Mumbai monsoon at the time of onset but it got over quickly and has not returned, thereafter. Both, the record observatories at Santacruz and Colaba, have yet to register a sustained downpour and both are short of the three-digit mark in 24 hours, which otherwise is very common. Monsoon onset outbursts are known for derailing the apparatus of preparations and throw life out of gear.
The month of June has nearly 500 mm of rainfall, 493.1mm to be exact and invariably gets surpassed during active monsoon season. The city had received heavy showers only once, on 09th June, announcing the onset of monsoon. The coastal town has accumulated a total of 166.7mm of rainfall and there is a long road ahead to reach the monthly target.
The absence of any monsoon systems evolving over the Indian seas has led to this scarcity. There is no likelihood of any system coming up over the Bay of Bengal, the main trigger for the monsoon surge along the Konkan coast in general and Mumbai, in particular. However, conditions are becoming favourable for in-situ formation of a cyclonic circulation, shortly. Activation of the monsoon trough will lead to the formation of circulation over Uttar Pradesh on 24th-25th June. This will move to parts of North Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan on 26th June and further shift over south and west Rajasthan the next day, on 27th June. This circulation is likely to meander over the same region for 2-3 days and lead to the intensification of the westerly stream along the Konkan Coast.
Monsoon activity is likely to pick up over the entire coastline of Maharashtra during next week. A wet spell is likely over Mumbai between the 25th and 29th June 2024. Moderate showers are expected on 24th and 25th June. The intensity and spread will increase on the 26th and 27th of June. Some of the places may go in for three-digit rainfall in 24 hours during this period. The rains will continue for the subsequent 48 hours, till 29th June. These are expected to ease out later and await a fresh surge in July, the rainiest month for the financial capital for the country.
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