Mumbai Rains : Monsoon Thrills Rising Steep during 2nd Half Of June

Mumbai Is expected to witness steep rise of monsoon pace during 3^rd and 4^th week of June.  Typical Mumbai rains have missed the mark so far and the 1^st half of the month was sparing at large. Meteorological conditions are building up to generate ‘distinct’ monsoon feel for the financial capital soon.

Monsoon arrived on time but made a meek start. Unlike the previous 2 years, the opening spell was rather soft with just 79mm of rain over 3 days between 09 – 11^thJune. Since then, off and on light showers, mostly fleeting ones failed to sink the monsoon feel for ‘Mumbaikars’. However, monsoon thrill is likely to catch up and the grueling days are not very far, troubling routine activities.

Typical monsoon westerlies along the Konkan coast will give cloudy sky and windy days with few light to moderate showers over the next 2 days (16th & 17th June). An offshore trough developing later will increase the frequency and intensity of monsoon showers on 18^th and 19^thJune. These showers will still be moderate having sufficient ‘breaks’ in between and mostly confined to late evening, night and early morning hours. With a cyclonic circulation coming up over ‘head bay’, monsoon surge will pick up strength between 20^th and 22^ndJune. Few heavy and long spells are expected during this period with a possibility of 3 digit rainfall at places. Finally, a cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea, off North Konkan and South Gujarat coast on 23^rdJune will accentuate surge. Classic heavy to very heavy monsoon showers, almost non-stop for long hours, can be expected between 24^th and 27^thJune.

It is little early to preempt precise weather conditions beyond the above dates. However, the outlook from the weather models  does not suggest any big respite. Heavy rains might as well spill over to the last days of June. Second half of June may be on track to compensate the shortfall of 1^st and 2^nd week.