Rains took a back seat for Mumbai yesterday. It was nearly a silent show with only one or two spells of light and fleeting rains in some parts of the city. Base observatory Santacruz recorded token 1 mm rainfall, whereas, Colaba was shade better with 10 mm in the past 24 hours. Extreme rainfall is not likely during the next four days, between 17th and 20th July 2024. However, an overcast sky and a few spells of moderate showers are quite likely over the next two days. Isolated places may even have heavy showers, sometime in the evening or night.
Monsoon activity over the Konkan region in general and Mumbai in particular is governed by weather systems in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and off-shore trough along the Western Ghats. Presently, the low-pressure area BoB has moved to Southeast Madhya Pradesh and the adjoining region, mainly seen as cyclonic circulation. The system seems to have weakened a bit over land in the past 24 hours. This is likely to move further over parts of West Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring Maharashtra.
A combination of multiple weather systems will be controlling the weather activity over and around Mumbai for the next about one week. The off-shore trough has been in place, extending from South Gujarat to Kerala. A weakened low-pressure area lies over Southeast Madhya Pradesh. An east-west shear zone is stretching across the central parts, roughly along 20°N. Yes, a low-pressure area is in the making over BoB shortly. Currently, a cyclonic circulation, as a precursor to the low-pressure area is marked over North BoB.
Mumbai is likely to have moderate showers over the next two days, between the 17th & 18th of July. One odd heavy spell in some areas can not be ruled out. During this period, the low pressure over Madhya Pradesh will get merged with the shear zone and the monsoon trough. Subsequently, laid-back activity is expected on the 19th and 20th July. During this interval, the fresh low-pressure area will form over BoB on 19th July and move inland on 21st July. Weather activity all along Konkan, including Mumbai will pick up between 21st and 24th July. The spread and intensity will be higher during the first two days.
Image Credit: PTI
