Mumbai and its suburbs are witnessing light patchy showers for the last few days. This pattern is likely to continue, at least for one more week or so. As an extended arm of the southwest monsoon season, the Konkan region in general and Mumbai, in particular, is continuing with sporadic rainfall, keeping the monsoon flavour intact. the retreat of Monsoon is drawing closer and therefore, becoming ambiguous for the financial capital, at least for the ongoing week.
The southwest monsoon normally withdraws from Mumbai by the 06th of October. The line of withdrawal, this season, has reached very close to Mumbai and passes through 20°N/70°E, Navsari (Gujarat), Nandurbar (Maharashtra) and further across parts of Madhya Pradesh. Mumbai at 19°N/73°E is merely a stone's throw distance from the borderline of monsoon. The wind stream has predominantly changed to easterly, in the lower levels, aligned with the retreat pattern. However, continuation of rains, over the next few days, albeit light in nature, may restrict an immediate withdrawal.
In addition, a tropical storm is likely to come up over the Arabian Sea, shortly. Though it may be a little early to comment about the system, but as a prelude, there are enough signs of a likely storm coming up in the Arabian Sea. Currently, there is a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep region and the Southeast Arabian Sea. It appears to be getting organized in the subsequent days and may turn into a maiden storm of this season. If so, the presence of this system will bring some more showers along the Konkan Coast, including Mumbai. The likely storm may not impact the Konkan Coast directly but may still trigger some showers, sometime next week.
The anticyclonic pattern over Rajasthan and North Gujarat has favoured the monsoon withdrawal. In continuation, the monsoon may withdraw from some more parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai in the next 2-4 days. Post withdrawal, the rains, if any, will form a part of the northeast monsoon season, which may usher in earlier than expected over the South Peninsula. However, as a necessary condition, the southwest monsoon has to complete its withdrawal from the country, before making way for the autumn monsoon.
Image Courtesy: Mint
