El Nino occurs once in 2-5 years and invariably we link El Nino with poor Monsoon rains. Past record shows that Mumbai generally defies El Nino norms applicable for most parts of India.
July and August are the rainiest months for Mumbai. July normally receives 800 mm of rain, followed by August with 530 mm and June closely follows with 523 mm. During the four-month long Monsoon season, Mumbai receives around 2000 mm of rainfall.
Past records show that during El Nino years, Monsoon generally does not fail in both the Monsoon months of July and August. Either both the months perform well or at least one between the two.
Including 2015 there have been 5 El Nino years since 2004. However, we should keep in mind that 2012 was a partial El Nino year as the threshold value was reached only in the month of September.
Here’s a look the performance of Monsoon in Mumbai in the previous El Nino years:
This July, Mumbai had received the least amount of rain in July as compared to the past ten years. The city received close to 359 mm in July, which is 55% below than the monthly average rainfall of 800 mm.
Mumbai has received 54 mm of rain so far this month. And it looks difficult for the city to reach the monthly normal rainfall. However, past records suggest that Mumbai could receive normal Monsoon rains this August.
Image credit - Hindustan Times
