Mountains remain more susceptible and vulnerable to weather activities, irrespective of the season. However, weather prediction during the monsoon remains the toughest challenge. Precision forecast, during active weather phase carry low confidence, as the variability of mountain weather far exceed the comprehension. Mountains of North India have a safe window of merely 40-45 days, from November to mid December, that too, low and mid reaches. Higher mountains, beyond an elevation of 15,000’, bear the risk of bad weather, any time of the year.
Withdrawal of southwest monsoon will commence soon, from the border posts of Western India. Standard deviation of one week is very-very common for start of process. Withdrawal, sometimes is more abrupt than the onset. Still, the retreat of monsoon is considered retrospectively, as the pattern is to be watched for continuity for a specified duration.
Notwithstanding, the dates of withdrawal, which is still a little away, mountains will observe decent weather conditions. There is no active western disturbance likely for the next one week or ten days. As and when move closer to the cessation of monsoon, probability of adverse weather goes lowest. However, the tricky feature of monsoon trough continue to play, hide and seek, at least during first half of September, more so for the state of Uttrakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
Prolonged break monsoon conditions kept the monsoon trough close to the foothills for longer than normal, in the month of August. While the eastern end of the trough has slid southward over Bay of Bengal, the western end still remain parked along the hills. Following formation of a low pressure area over Bay of Bengal and its further westward movement over the central parts, the monsoon trough will remain inactive for the mountainous states of North India for the next one week.
Cyclonic circulation of the weakened low-pressure area will reach Western Madhya Pradesh, tentatively on 10th September. Oscillation of the monsoon trough will once again lead to sporadic rain and thundershowers from 11th September and later. The state of Uttrakhand will have the bigger share followed by Himachal Pradesh. Foothills and lower hills will be at risk of sharp and intense showers between 11th and 14th September. Still, the weather activity may not be as disruptive and damaging, as it was experienced, halfway through the season. Caution needs to be exercised.