Plains of North India witnessed the wettest spell of the monsoon season over the last 4 days, between 22nd and 25thSep 2022. Some places like Delhi, Ambala, Karnal, Chandigarh, Aligarh, Jaipur, Ludhiana and Patiala were deluged with incessant heavy rains. All locations exceeded their monthly normal and compensated the shortfall incurred earlier in August. There is lasting respite expected over the region, through the week.
Earlier, multiple weather systems working in tandem, raided most parts with copious rains, disrupting normal life. The remnant of low pressure area as cyclonic circulation remained nearly stationary and persisted for nearly 3-4 days. Monsoon trough maintained closed proximity, oscillating north and south a bit but remaining within the striking distance. The western disturbance infused some more intensity and prolonged the wet spell.
In the wake of multiple weather features, wind pattern has changed. Moist easterly winds have been reversed in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Feeble cyclonic circulation still persist over north Punjab, below the friction level. This feature, along with abundant left over humidity and rise of temperature may cause light and isolated weather activity at few places today. Tomorrow onwards, partly cloudy sky with sufficient sunshine is expected over most parts, lasting during the week.
Monsoon had earlier withdrawn from a small portion of West Rajasthan and streak of Kutch. Now, marked anticyclone is likely to come up over Rajasthan. Reversal of wind pattern, establishing northwesterly winds, will diminish humidity content. Absence of clouds will raise the mercury level. All put together, conditions are becoming favorable for further withdrawal of monsoon from parts of North India including Delhi. Withdrawal line will take a big leap by fag end of the month or at best start of October. Monsoon is expected to recede from more parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and some portion of West Uttar Pradesh during this period.
Monsoon withdrawal need not be construed as total cessation of rains, thereafter. Under favorable conditions, some weather activity, albeit light and scattered in nature, is an integral part of withdrawal pattern. Monsoon systems will continue to emerge over Bay of Bengal and move inland. One such system may bring some rains over parts of East Rajasthan, North Gujarat, North Madhya Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh and Delhi around middle of next week, breaching a portion of withdrawal line.