Southwest Monsoon 2022 has started vacating from the western most parts of the country. It has withdrawn from the last posts of West Rajasthan and the border areas of Kutch. Withdrawal line passes through Naliya, Jodhpur, Bikaner and the border post of Khajuwala.
The entire pocket was experiencing dry weather conditions, including Lakhpat, Barmer, Jaisalmer and Phalodi. Anticyclonic wind tendency, fair amount of sunshine, rise of mercury and drop of moisture level got aligned with the criterion of withdrawal.
This happens to be the earliest withdrawal since 2017 when the monsoon commenced withdrawal on the 27th of September. The latest withdrawal since then was in 2019, on 09th October.
Last year also, the western parts experienced an extended monsoon and the withdrawal started on 06thOct. However, the process was rather speedy and got completed in little over 2 weeks, against the normal duration of one month.
Unlike the previous year, withdrawal from northwestern parts may be indolent. Regular flow of the monsoon low pressures or circulations may stall the process for a week or more from plains of North India, including the national capital.
20thSeptember, the normal date of withdrawal from extreme western parts of Punjab and Haryana has already been overshot and the national capital may also abstain from its stipulated date of 25thSeptember.
Presently, a low pressure area is marked over central parts of Madhya Pradesh and adjoining region. It is likely to move with snail’s pace and meander over North Madhya Pradesh and Southwest Uttar Pradesh for the next about 4days. This will support the moist easterly winds intruding over Delhi and parts of Punjab, Haryana and East Rajasthan. Monsoon trough will also be active and run in the close proximity of this region, in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Withdrawal phase of monsoon, as such, is quite synonymous with sporadic and sudden showers, increasing unpredictability. Delhi and adjacent parts of East Rajasthan, Haryana and some areas of Punjab may get retreating monsoon showers over the next 3-4 days. It will take further few days for the withdrawal pattern to get established. Accordingly, the monsoon withdrawal may take a pause over North India and roll over to the fag end of the month or even later.