Southwest Monsoon commenced its withdrawal from West Rajasthan on 28th September. In the subsequent 48 hours, it also retreated from the northern hilly states, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and some more parts of Rajasthan. The conditions are now favourable for further withdrawal from complete Rajasthan, North Madhya Pradesh and some more parts of Uttar Pradesh in the next 2-3 days.
The presence of low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal and its likely move across the central parts may pause further withdrawal for a few days. This weather system is likely to cause some rainfall over Southwest Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat on 9th and 10th October. Accordingly, the withdrawal will resume only after the system clears the extreme western parts of Gujarat.
Monsoon activity over parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat between 10th and 15th October is quite normal. Invariably this does not find any extension beyond 15th Oct and paves way for ushering of northeast monsoon over the south peninsula. Conditions are looking favourable for more cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal beyond 10th October as well.