Despite Southwest Monsoon 2018 making a powerful onset, June ended on a deficit note i.e. by 5%. The deficiency lingered on to July that not only began on deficit note but also saw deficiency increasing to new levels.
According to Skymet Weather, the situation had become alarming because the countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency had gone beyond 15% for July. The deficiency increasing during the core Monsoon month of July and that too in double-digit indicates that rainfall has been quite low.
Figures suggest that from July 1 to 10, rainfall has been below the normal average by 15% to 20% on daily basis, barring just one day.
However, the situation improved July 11 onward, bringing in much-needed relief. Monsoon has been in an upswing since July 10 and rains have been excess as compared to normal average. As a result, the countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency decreased substantially, which as on July 18 stands at 3%.
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The second half of July is the rainiest period for the entire country, wherein the daily normal average rains for the country is as high as 10 mm. Now, the best part is that we have been able to exceed the normal average on daily basis. As a result, deficiency is just about 3 percent.
All thanks to the series of cyclonic circulations that have been forming in the Bay of Bengal and moving inland and traveling across Central India. The latest one was the well-marked low-pressure area over Coastal Odisha which has now moved to Madhya Pradesh as a low-pressure area.
This Monsoon upswing has pulled out the drought threat over the areas like Gujarat and Odisha. The rainfall deficiency in Gujarat that had once mounted above 75% now stands at normal. Odisha was also battling rainfall deficiency at 45% which at present has reduced to 3%.
Out of the last few days, the past three days saw some very heavy to extremely heavy rains, contributing the most to improving the cumulative countrywide rainfall deficiency.
Further, weathermen are of the view that this Monsoon will continue to be active to vigorous another 10 days. According to weathermen, after this well-marked low-pressure area moves away, another system is expected to develop in Bay of Bengal which would be even more favourable for giving rains over the Indian region.
There might be a brief break around July 20 but thereafter we can expect another bout of flooding rains across central parts such as Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka are also likely to record some good Monsoon rains. Southern region and Northwest India, Uttar Pradesh would also observe satisfactory rainfall in the coming days.
However, Northeast India which is one of the rainiest pockets during Monsoon would continue to be a spoil sport. In East India, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand would also see rains.
With this, the pan-India deficiency which is at 3% on July 18 is most likely to reduce and might even go to zero in the coming days.
Image Credit: youstory.com
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
