State of Uttar Pradesh has witnessed decent monsoon rainfall during the last two weeks. Both the sub-divisions of East an West Uttar Pradesh are in excess of seasonal rainfall, with west more than the east. Another round of heavy rains is likely between 11th and 13thJuly 2024. Isolated pockets may observe some flooding rains during this period.
Monsoon trough is running around its normal position on the surface and lower levels. It will have tendency to shift over Indi Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh, with an inclination of shifting closer to the foothills. The northward shift of trough will have small scale cyclonic circulations embedded along its stretch, parallel to the foothills of Nepal. These bubbles will trigger heavy rainfall, could be in excess of 100mm in 24 hours.
The weather activity will start with eastern border of the state. Places like Ballia, Ghazipur, Varanasi, Gorakhpur will have moderate to heavy showers on 10thJuly. The spread and intensity will increase the next day, on 11thJuly. The stretch of heavy rains will have a long track across Sultanpur, Amethi, Raebareli, Gonda, Faizabad, Prayagraj, Lucknow, Kanpur and Bahraich. Even, the southwest corner of the state covering Lalitpur, Jhansi, Agra, Aligarh and Mathura may witness heavy downpour. The remnant effect will carry on 12thJuly and shrink on 13thJuly and later dates.
West Uttar Pradesh, already in excess of 53% rainfall will become large surplus. Even, East Uttar Pradesh will add to its spare of 29% and step in to high 30’s over the next one week. A pair of cyclonic circulations over Bay of Bengal and their subsequent movement over land during the next one week will keep the monsoon activity going over the state. Active to normal monsoon conditions are expected till, past mid July or even beyond those dates.