The low-pressure area at the start of the week over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) moved inland across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Presently, the system is marked as a weak low pressure over Southeast Madhya Pradesh with cyclonic circulation up to mid-tropospheric levels. The weather system has triggered moderate to heavy rains covering South Chhattisgarh, Southern Half of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Telangana. This activity will gradually weaken and a fresh surge of weather is likely over eastern and central parts of the country.
In quick succession, a fresh low-pressure area is likely to come up over BoB, around 19th July 2024. As a precursor, a broad cyclonic circulation is marked over North BoB. This will get consolidated and circulation with sharp outlines is likely to persist over the same region in the next 24 hours. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over Northwest BoB off the Odisha coast on 19th July 2024. The low pressure will move inland across Odisha and Jharkhand on 20th July. Unlike, its predecessor, this low is tracking more northwestward, along the monsoon trough.
The well-marked low-pressure area will cross North Odisha on 20th July and track along Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh, Northeast Madhya Pradesh & Southeast Uttar Pradesh and reach the tri-junction of North Madhya Pradesh, Southwest Uttar Pradesh and Northeast Rajasthan on 24th July. Since the model accuracy goes low after about 5 days, there could be small variations in its path. Notwithstanding, the formation of low pressure is certain and it is likely to trigger active to vigorous monsoon activity over the eastern, central and northern parts of the country. Update on the system will be more reliable after about 48 hours.
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