Southwest monsoon entry into Gujarat has been delayed this season. Though it touched southern parts of Coastal Gujarat on time but did not proceed beyond Navsari for quite a few days. Last 24 hours, it has progressed further and the northern limit has reached Veraval, Bharuch, Rajpipla, Chhotta Udaipur and from thereon to Madhya Pradesh. Under the normal schedule, the monsoon current reaches Ahmedabad on the 20th of June, Rajkot on the 25th June and kutch by the 30th of June.
The state of Gujarat witnesses pre-monsoon showers before the arrival of monsoon. However, both the sub-divisions, Gujarat and Saurashtra & Kutch, have been largely rain deficit by 67% and 73% respectively, between 01st and 23rd June 2024. Both these pockets are likely to have fairly widespread rainfall over the next two days, to start with, and further at the end of the week.
A cyclonic circulation has come up over the Northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining coastal parts of Saurashtra. There is yet another cyclonic circulation over Southwest Rajasthan and extreme northern parts of Gujarat. East-West troughs are extending from these two features, and joining over Southwest Madhya Pradesh. Under the influence of these two circulations and confluence of troughs will increase the intensity and spread of rainfall over the state of Gujarat.
The current spell and another one following after a short break, at the fag end of the month will take the monsoon further over most parts of Saurashtra and deep into the interiors of North and Central Gujarat. Heavy rainfall is likely at many places over Saurashtra and Gujarat over the next 48 hours. Locations at risk of heavy spell will include Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Mehsana, Dahod, Patan, Kheda, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Bhavnagar, Mahuva, Amreli, Junagadh, Somnath and Veraval. Coastal stations along the Gulf of Kutch will have light to moderate rainfall during this period.