Southwest monsoon advance has been sluggish on either side of the coastline. The eastern arm from the Bay of Bengal was ruptured immediately after the onset of northeast India and never recovered till now. The western arm from the Arabian Sea crawled along the West Coast to Mumbai and stalled, thereafter. As of now, the monsoon is behind schedule and is yet to cover almost half of the country.
Despite the delay and large deficit, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to gain ground and advance, taking leaps over the next 10 days. It is likely to keep its date with the national capital and an on-time arrival is expected. As per the revised schedule, the monsoon arrives in Delhi on the 27th of June. A margin error of +/- 48 hours is always considered a perfect arrival. Delhi is expected to have a speedy monsoon stream, reaching anytime around the 28th/29th of June.
A series of cyclonic circulations are likely to come up in the next about three days, across Indo-Gangetic plains. Small-scale circulation is likely over Punjab, North Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan region on 27th June. A broad cyclonic circulation is expected simultaneously, over coastal parts of Odisha, West Bengal and the northwest Bay of Bengal. An east-west trough will join these two features, with an embedded circulation over Southwest Uttar Pradesh and North Madhya Pradesh. The trio of these features will strengthen the easterly flow along the Indo-Gangetic plains and firm up the monsoon trough, the main driver of seasonal rains over northern parts.
Prior to the onset of the monsoon, the heat wave has already abated from Delhi/NCR. The capital city has recorded day temperatures of under 40°C for the last 2 days. A similar trend is likely till the arrival of the monsoon. At best, the temperature may exceed the threshold of 40°C by about a degree or so. Conditions are quite conducive for having pre-monsoon activity on a regular basis, till the monsoon touches down by this weekend. Passing showers, spells of thunderstorms/ dust storms, and strong dusty winds accompanied with thundershowers will be the highlights for the next few days, between the 24th and 27th of June. Ushering of monsoon is invariably preceded by this type of weather activity.
