Pre-Monsoon showers have gained momentum across the country and are expected to cover more parts by next week. This activity will set the stage for the four-month rainy season to commence on schedule. Skymet had earlier predicted that Monsoon onset is expected to be early, around May 27. An error margin of +/-5 days is always taken for granted in meteorological analysis.
According to forecasters at Skymet, the rain-bearing monsoon clouds will reach the Andaman region in the Bay of Bengal by May 25, and hit Kerala thereafter.
Correlation between onset and performance of Monsoon
The onset of Monsoon does not have any correlation with its further progress, advancement and performance. It is just a step ahead and the table below will make this statement clearer.
Here, we can see that the year 2009 saw a very early onset of Monsoon but it was a drought year. On the other hand, monsoon rains reached the Kerala coast on June 7 in the year 2008, which received normal rains. However, the timely onset of Southwest Monsoon is crucial for sowing of Kharif (summer) crops.
The western arm of the Monsoon line generally advances very quickly. After its onset on June 1, Southwest Monsoon covers Mumbai and reaches Dahanu by June 10. The eastern arm of the Monsoon is also known for moving quickly in the initial days, but they slow down after covering some distance. The slowest advancement is over western parts of Rajasthan, where it takes about 12 days to reach after its onset over Delhi on June 29.
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