Progress of the southwest monsoon has been stalled distressfully on either side of the coastline. The Bay of Bengal branch is stuck, for fairly long, over Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Northeast Bihar. As per the normal schedule, the monsoon reaches most parts of East and Central Uttar Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir by 25th June. As of today, it is languishing over some eastern parts, barely making entry into Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar. The NLM is crossing through Chaibasa (Jharkhand), Haldia (West Bengal), Pakur ( Jharkhand) and Raxaul ( Bihar). The northern limit is running across the outskirts of these three states. It is likely to advance rapidly across these parts and take a big leap over Uttar Pradesh, as well, over the next about 3 days.
There is a cyclonic circulation over the Northeast and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal (BoB), a favourable trigger for monsoon. Also, there is another circulation/trough over Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh. The circulation over BoB is likely to get organized and come over Northwest BoB, off Odisha and West Bengal coast, covering a large area on 26th June. Further, this feature will move over land, the next day and join with the pre-existing circulation over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Together, the two systems will align the monsoon flow from the BoB and take it deep over the eastern states. Typical monsoon easterly winds are likely to establish along the Indo-Gangetic plains, carrying the monsoon stream across the states of West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand, latest by 27th June 2024.
From hereon, the baton will be handed over to the next circulation over Southwest Uttar Pradesh and North Madhya Pradesh. This system will also have support of yet another circulation over Punjab, North Rajasthan and Pakistan region, in strengthening the monsoon stream over West Uttar Pradesh, North Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Uttrakhand and the foothills of Punjab and Haryana. By the end of the month, monsoon will reach these parts and maybe a little ahead of schedule for some pockets. If all goes well, like the repeat of last year, monsoon may take an early call, right up to the last posts of Rajasthan.
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