During the Monsoon season, especially in July and August, Bay of Bengal hosts a number of Monsoon systems. Each month nearly four Monsoon systems are formed in the Bay. However, these systems are subject to the prevalence of conducive conditions.
The Monsoon trough is a very important driver of weather activity for the entire country during this season. Presently, the western arm is running very close to the foothills. The eastern arm of the trough is dipping down in the Bay of Bengal.
Model indicators suggest that conditions are favourable for a Monsoon system to form in the Bay of Bengal. The system remains there for some time but does not get organized. Various factors are not letting the system to strengthen.
A very powerful Typhoon Soudelor has already made its first landfall over Taiwan and is expected to make second landfall in East China by tonight. It is expected to be strong enough even after its landfall. There is another system behind it which is recurving short of Taiwan and is moving towards China. After Soudelor’s landfall in East China, both these systems will merge together.
These powerful weather systems drive the Monsoon surge and largely influence the wind patterns over Bay of Bengal. Under these conditions, it becomes quite difficult for any system to brew and get organized in the Bay of Bengal.
In another 48 hours, the aforementioned systems are expected to weaken and move away. Thus during this period, no system will come up. Furthermore, the system in the Bay of Bengal will get organized after 48 hours and most likely, Monsoon activity will pick up in several parts of the country by next week.
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