The progress of Southwest Monsoon is dependent on the Monsoon systems that come up in either the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea. These systems are responsible for resulting in good rains on either sides and taking the Southwest Monsoon further.
The entire Southwest Monsoon activity depends on three factors that include the Monsoon systems that brew in the Bay or the Arabian Sea, the off shore troughs that usually develop along the West Coast and the Monsoon trough which gets established and enhances rainfall activity.
Presently, weather models are indicating a formation of a system in the Bay of Bengal off the Andhra Pradesh. The system is likely to form initially as a cyclonic circulation around June 16. Thereafter the Monsoon system is expected to become more marked.
Around June 17 and 18, the system is expected to move inland and enhance rainfall activity over Peninsular India, West Coast and entire Maharashtra.
The track of the Monsoon systems dictates the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM), particularly in the onset phase. Climatologically, the Monsoon system will either travel west reaching up to Konkan and Goa or it will move towards Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh and re curve towards Uttar Pradesh.
However, the system will not reach the northern plains and residents of North India will have to wait a little longer for the arrival of Monsoon. The picture will become clearer as the weather systems gets more organized in the Bay of Bengal.
This system is expected to give good rains over entire Maharashtra. In fact, it will be more like a blessing for parched Maharashtra which has been reeling under drought conditions for quite some time now.
Areas including Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha as well as Coastal Maharashtra is expected to receive good showers as this system becomes more organized. While light rain may begin over Vidarbha on June 17, good showers will only occur around June 18.
Thereafter, rains will cover more parts including Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra. Around June 19 and 20, coastal stations of Maharashtra will also begin to receive good showers. In fact, Telangana will also witness some rainfall activity during this period.
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Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com
