The arrival of monsoon rains brings a sigh of relief to India after scorching summer months. However, this year, the eastern arm of the monsoon has remained stagnant since arriving on May 31st. The good news is that conditions are finally becoming favourable for the monsoon to progress eastward and bring much-needed rainfall to several states.
The culprit behind the delay? Strong westerly winds blowing persistently over the Indo-Gangetic Plains. These winds have acted as a barrier, preventing the monsoon from moving towards the east and northwest regions.
However, a change is on the horizon. We expect the development of a "trough" (an elongated area of low pressure) extending from southeast Uttarakhand to east Bihar. Additionally, a cyclonic circulation is expected to form over east Bihar and adjoining West Bengal. These developments will act as triggers, aiding the eastward movement of the monsoon.
As a result, we can expect monsoon rains to commence over eastern India and eastern parts of central India within the next 3 to 4 days. This progress will be a welcome relief for states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and eastern Uttar Pradesh, which have been battling scorching heatwave conditions. The monsoon's arrival is likely to bring a significant decrease in temperatures, offering much-needed respite from the ongoing hot weather.
The eastward movement is expected to continue, with the monsoon potentially reaching eastern Uttar Pradesh and eastern Madhya Pradesh by June 24 or 25. Rainfall activity is also expected to intensify in eastern Rajasthan and Gujarat during the same period.
While the monsoon arrival is a bit behind schedule in eastern India, it's important to remember there's still time to catch up. Forecasts suggest the monsoon will reach north and northwest India within the next 10 days. The upcoming rains are expected to significantly bridge the rain deficit that has accumulated over the past week.
So, here's to the arrival of the monsoon and the hope it brings for a cooler, wetter, and more agriculturally productive season!
Image Credit: www.prabhatkhabar.com
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