In addition to the monsoon rains over north and eastern parts, moderate to heavy showers have lashed some pockets of the extreme Southern Peninsula. Interiors of Tamil Nadu & Kerala, Rayalaseema and far southern parts of South Interior Karnataka have witnessed scattered heavy showers. Arogyavaram in Rayalaseema and Bengaluru in South Karnataka recorded 115mm and 74mm rainfall in the past 24 hours. Tiruppattur and Salem in Tamil Nadu measured hefty showers of 68mm and 66mm respectively. These showers are not aligned with typical monsoon patterns and are rather an offshoot of a likely system emerging over the oceanic part of the extreme South Peninsula.
A cyclonic circulation is emerging over Sri Lanka, the Gulf of Mannar and Palk Strait. It is in the nascent stage but promising to build over the next few days. For the next 3 days, the feature will be growing incrementally and finally becoming organized on 15th -16th August. Possibly a low-pressure area may form over Sri Lanka, Comorin and the Gulf of Mannar on the 16th – 17th of August. This may further intensify and also shift over Southeast Arabian Sea and Maldives area, the next day. Since the model accuracy is not reliable after 4-5 days, it may not be right to dwell deep into this system at this stage.
However, for the next about 4 days, the winds are converging from either side of the coast, right into the center of circulation. A north-south trough is likely from the Gulf of Mannar, extending deep into the interiors of Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka. Moderate rain and thundershowers at many places and heavy at isolated places are likely over Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala between the 12th and 16th August. Places at risk will include Madurai, Trichy, Thanjavur, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode, Bengaluru, Mysuru, Mandya, Tirupati, Chittoor, Arogyavaram, Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Wayanad and Idukki. Once the low-pressure area takes shape, the pattern will stabilize. Further intensification will take the heavy rainfall belt away from the interiors of the South Peninsula. Meteorological conditions will have to be observed and reviewed around mid-week.
Image Courtesy: WikiTravel
