Monsoon rains likely to decrease across India

Southwest Monsoon arrived over the mainland of India on June 5, a little behind schedule. Nevertheless, June ended with 16% surplus rainfall of the long period average (LPA). But, rainfall was subdued in the month of July, which ended with -15% rainfall deficiency. It thus consumed all the surplus Monsoon rains left over by June.

August did not begin on a very positive note either. Rainfall has been scanty since the beginning of the month. However, the countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency has been close to normal at -9%, for the last one week.

As of now, Southwest Monsoon seems to have taken a backseat in most parts of India. The low pressure area over Central India brought sufficient rainfall over Madhya Prdaesh, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, Vidarbha, East Gujarat and East Rajasthan during last one week. This system did not do much to bring down the overall rainfall deficiency for the country. It just helped to contain the rainfall deficiency figure.

The low pressure area will shift northwards, closer to the foothills of the Himalayas during next 24 hours. Thereafter, it is likely to become insignificant. The Monsoon trough is also expected to move towards the foothills. Consequently, good Monsoon rains will now be confined to Northeast India and the foothills of the Himalayas. Rest of the country will not receive sufficient rainfall. Thus, we can say that the countrywide rainfall deficiency will see a marginal rise during next couple of days.

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