The weather of Punjab remained almost dry throughout the month of September. Delhi recorded some good showers until September 8. Since then, the weather of Delhi has gone dry. Haryana witnessed light patchy showers until the first week of September thereafter weather of Haryana has also become dry.
Although the western end of the axis of monsoon trough was running near its normal position, moisture incursion remained absent from the Bay of Bengal as well as from the Arabian Sea. Now, well marked low pressure area is over Andhra Pradesh which will move in west North West direction and pull down the axis of monsoon trough to the south of its normal position.
We do not expect any weather activity over Punjab, Haryana and Delhi until September 17. There may be isolated light rain activities over Delhi NCR as well as parts of Haryana and isolated pockets of Punjab. But these rain activities will be for a short duration and will not cover and entire Delhi, Haryana or Punjab.
Another low pressure area is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal around September 18 and winds over Indo Gangetic plains including North-West India will become easterly. This will delay the withdrawal of monsoon from North-West India including Delhi. But chances of monsoon rain over north-west India are now very slim.
For commencement of Monsoon withdrawal, winds should be persistent from Northwest or West direction, a significant decrease in humidity levels, Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days and establishment of anticyclone in the lower troposphere.
We can say that this year monsoon withdrawal will be delayed by at least 2 weeks.
