The onset of the monsoon was delayed by 8 days over Kerala. Soon after, cyclone Biparjoy halted the progress of the monsoon over the South Peninsula and further over Northeast India. June ended with a rain deficiency of 10%.
Monsoon progressed at a faster pace during the last week of June and covered the entire country well before time July 2nd. Successive low-pressure areas and depressions developed over the West Central Bay of Bengal and moved inland. Flooding rain was witnessed over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Mumbai.
Monsoon rain during July remained surplus. The monsoon surplus reached 7% in the last week of July. Ongoing rain activities over the Northwest and Central parts of the country have reduced significantly during the last 10 days. The 7% surplus is now consumed. Going ahead we expect monsoon rain to slip in negative.
The impact of El Nino will be seen during August and September. The axis of the monsoon trough has shifted to the foothills of the Himalayas leading to break monsoon conditions. We do not expect any significant rain activities over Northwest Central and South Peninsula for at least the next week. There is no indication of any significant development over the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal. This is a matter of concern for many states of Northwest Central and South Peninsula.
Models are indicating positive IOD during the second half of August and September. This may reduce the harsh impact of El Nino to some extent. The chances seem to be very bright for the monsoon to end with below-normal rainfall.