The southwesterly winds have strengthened in Southeast Bay of Bengal and South Andaman Sea, and it is expected that they will sustain and increase rain in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands during the next two days. A cyclonic circulation that will form over North Andaman Sea during the next 24 hours and move in north-eastnorthward direction, will keep the southwesterly winds continuous in the region, keeping conditions favourable for the commencement of Monsoon over the Bay islands. Port Blair that received 5 mm of rain in the last 24 hours, is expected to observe gradual increase in rain.
In an earlier update, Skymet Meteorology Division had the predicted development of a cyclonic circulation in North Andaman Sea by the weekend. This weather system will play a major role in the onset of the Southwest Monsoon in India. Weathermen are of the view that if the weather system becomes strong, it could take away all the moisture current, weakening the conducive weather conditions for advancement of Monsoon. But the strengthening of the weather system as a strong one looks somewhat susceptible as the area of its emergence is close to Arakan coast in Mayanmar.
Prior to the onset, the cross equatorial flow generally strengthens and thereafter the strong southwesterly winds sweep across Kerala coast, announcing the arrival of Monsoon. As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the Southwest Monsoon in Kerala is likely to commence from 28th May, two to three days before the scheduled date of onset.
