Monsoon is likely to be in a relatively ‘quiet’ mode for the next 3 days, between 14th and 16th July. Earlier, the monsoon stream had gathered pace to become vigorous between the 04th and 10th July, more so, over the Northern and central parts of the country. It was literally a deluge for the mountains and plains of North India, inflicting loss of men and material resources. Even after receding and cessation of rains, large parts of North India, including the national capital is under siege by overflowing water bodies. Already saturated rivers and canals have been further subjected to carry excess spillovers from the dams and reservoirs. The breaching of banks has left many pockets of Delhi inundated, leaving anxious moments for the control agencies.
Monsoon had taken a sleepy walk over the last 2 days, with rainfall amounts dropping below the averages. Rainfall has been 8-10% below the normal on 12th and 13th July. It is a blessing in disguise, as the rescue and restoration work has picked up pace to take at least baby steps towards restoring normalcy. A similar trend is likely for the next 3 days before the fury tales build up again on account of the fresh monsoon system coming up over the Bay of Bengal.
The seasonal monsoon trough and a cyclonic circulation over central Uttar Pradesh are controlling the weather activity over most parts of the country. While the southern regions are reeling with a perpetual deficit, the northern belt has witnessed an unwelcome bout of excess rains. The monsoon trough will shift its western end northward, close to the foothills over the next 3 days. Following a monsoon low build-up in the Bay of Bengal, around the 17th/18th of July, monsoon easterly stream along the Indo-Gangetic plains will mark a significant change. Monsoon trough will shift to the south, once again and carry the weather belt also, along with.
The presence of cyclonic circulation over central Uttar Pradesh, coupled with the proximity of the monsoon trough, has been helping a convergence zone over the state and neighbourhood. Scattered rain and thundershowers are likely over the state, shifting from west to east, over the next 3 days. The northward shift of the monsoon trough will increase the weather activity along the foothills of Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and the state of Uttrakhand. Northeast India will continue to have its normal share of monsoon rains. However, the state of Rajasthan, most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Telangana and the entire southern peninsula will nearly draw blank over this period. Overall, monsoon activity will not be harsh to erupt any fresh trouble. Monsoon rainfall surplus has marginally dropped from 2% to 1%. With only a mild roar of monsoon over limited parts over the next 3 days, this may shrink to break even by the weekend.