An active Monsoon trough, which is an important feature for the Southwest Monsoon to enter Delhi, is yet to establish. In the absence of any significant system weather activity in Delhi/NCR is subdued.
A Western Disturbance by itself is not strong enough and it should work in tandem with the cyclonic circulation to bring good showers. In the recent past, we could see both Western Disturbances and circulations developing but they were confined to Rajasthan. In fact the national capital has been missing them by whiskers.
In the last 24 hours, several places in northern parts of Rajasthan, very close to Delhi, had good showers with Bikaner recording 74 mm of rain. Though Noida had a cloudy day on Monday but the rain belt moved passed its fringes. Few pockets of Delhi received light rain with Safdarjung and Palam recording 3 mm and 2.6 mm of rain on Monday.
Consequently, the maximum temperature in Delhi, which had been settling five to six notches above normal till Saturday, witnessed a drop on Sunday evening to record 40⁰C. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the mercury came down further on Monday to 38.8⁰C due to cloudy skies.
The mercury had already crossed the 35⁰C mark both at Safdarjung and Palam, before Tuesday afternoon. Nevertheless, the day temperature may not rise much as the Western Disturbance moving across the hills of Jammu and Kashmir and a circulation near central Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan, are feeding moist southwesterly winds across Rajasthan to Delhi, believes AVM (Retd), G.P Sharma.
But activity in terms of rain will remain subdued in Delhi for the next 2 days. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of dust storm followed by light rain