June has been all about weak Monsoon rain with the national cumulative rain deficiency mounting to 42%. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Wasim, Damoh and Sultanpur . The western arm, passing through Veraval, Surat and Nasik has been stagnant for the 13th consecutive day.
However, model data at Skymet suggests hope of revival from the first week of July. With a fresh Monsoon over the west coast and the cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal, the cumulative deficit might get narrowed down by a significant margin.
Rain in the west coast
The dry spell along the west coast covering Keral, Karnataka, Konkan and Goa is near an end. The west coast of south India hasn’t received any rain since more than a week now but a fresh surge in the Arabian Sea could bring Monsoon showers along the coastline by the 1st of July.
According to the data available with Skymet Meteorology Division in India, cumulative rain deficit has been increasing in Konkan & Goa, which at present stands at 56% short of Monsoon rain. Rain deficiency in coastal Karnataka is 35% and Kerala about 24% but the present weather system could mitigate this deficit rain to some extent.
Rain in the east coast and East India
The cyclonic circulation near the coastal parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh will continue to bring good Monsoon rain over Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Due the influence of the system, no dry spell is in the offing for East India. After bringing rain over coastal Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and adjoining West Bengal, the rain belt will engulf interiors of Telangana, south Odisha, Telangana and Vidarbha. Light to good amounts of rain is likely over Gangetic plains, Jharkhand, Bihar and Chhattisgarh as well.
Monsoon in North India
Monsoon will cover Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh by the first week of July and continuous rain is likely in the national capital and northwest plains, commencing around the 5th of July.
As of now the national cumulative average Monsoon rain is deficient by a whopping 42%, making it only the 12th instance in last 113 years when rainfall deficit has been over 30% in the month.
While Northwest India is deficient by 51%, Central India is even more than 58%. These regions performed rather poorly as compared to southern peninsula and East & Northeast India. The state of Gujarat is reeling under extreme dry weather conditions and the deficit here has mounted to 88% from 78% till 17th June. Similarly, even Rajasthan is facing a huge deficit.
Picture courtesy- Kevin Hellon