Following ‘break monsoon’ conditions, southwest monsoon seems to have ‘gone in to shell’. Weather activity has been confined to the foothills of Uttrakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Northeast India. Similar conditions are likely to prevail till mid – August and may stretch beyond in to 3rd week of August. The entire stretch from Uttrakhand to Assam will not experience intense weather activity simultaneously and will leave sufficient gaps in between. This is the normal characteristic of monsoon during ‘break’ conditions. Some showers always spill over to plains of Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and remaining states of Northeast India. Few wet spell for South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are part of the weak monsoon pattern.
Rainfall deficiency of June was well covered by active monsoon in July. The core monsoon month recorded 13% excess rainfall to take the season to surplus margin of 105% of long period average (LPA). Subdued and diminutive phase of monsoon in August has consumed the reserve rainfall and the season stands at ‘break even’ point as on 09thAugust 2023. Overall picture for the next 10 days at least is looking grim. The shortfall will increase and may reach 95% 0f LPA around 16thAug.
The core monsoon rainfed area of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are projecting bleak prospects of any major recovery in the next 10days or even more. The accumulated surplus over land locked sub divisions of Maharashtra has been consumed and now slipped in to negative margins. Similar is the case with Rajasthan and Gujarat. Negligible monsoon activity is likely over the next 2 weeks. Entire South Peninsula will stare at parched conditions during this period.
There are chances of partial recovery for the rain deficit states of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal over the next 10 days, more so in the 3rd week of August. Down south, a seasonal surplus of Telangana will get consumed by the drier conditions and Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will slip into growing deficit. State of Kerala will continue to wait anxiously for decent rains and will plunge in to drought like conditions over the next 2 weeks.