After a deluge in July, monsoon surge has turned its back and has abandoned many parts of the country in the opening week of August. Surplus margins accumulated during July, particularly over the core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh is getting consumed. Weak phase of monsoon is spelling bane and brewing trouble for the agri bowl of central and western parts of the country.
There is no monsoon system, other than the monsoon trough, driving seasonal rains. Monsoon trough also is lop sided with its western end running north of its normal position, close to the foothills and the eastern one oscillating north and south between Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Gangetic West Bengal. Monsoon rains have been largely cornered and are confined to foothills of Himalayas. Scattered rains have lashed parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and northeastern parts. This is the likely pattern also, for the next about 2 weeks.
Monsoon spread and intensity will shrink during the 2nd and 3rd week of August. As such, the seasonal rainfall has dropped from 107% of the long period average (LPA) to 103% on 06th August. It is likely to reach zero-zero in the next few days and thereafter, start plunging in the negative regime. Fresh monsoon systems emerging from the Bay of Bengal can recover seasonal activity from the diminutive and debilitating run of the monsoon in August. However, no palliative system seems likely for the next 2 weeks extending a conciliatory note.
In such a situation, nearly akin to ‘break monsoon’, heavy rainfall belt extends from Uttrakhand, foothills of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh. Heavy showers do invade Parts of Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Heavy downpours and stretches of extremely severe activity may not be simultaneous for these parts and will take turns with breaks in between. Vulnerable places for intense weather activity include Mussoorie, Dehradun, Rishikesh, Roorkee, Kotdwara, Rudrapur, Champawat, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Gonda, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Varanasi, Forbesganj, Supaul, Motihari, Araria, Kishenganj, Katihar, Purnea and Bhagalpur. Northern parts of West Bengal and Sikkim will also be at risk of having very heavy rainfall over the next one week.
Most other parts covering western, central and southern regions will experience frail monsoon activity. The interior parts of Peninsular India, including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry will witness a submissive monsoon. The rain deficit of Kerala will mount further to turn scary for the season. The entire southern region is possibly heading for a seasonal deficit of about 20% rainfall in the next 2 weeks.
