Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach South Gujarat shortly and cover many parts of Saurashtra and central parts including the state capital Gandhinagar by 15th June. Heavy rains are likely over South Gujarat (Vapi, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Bharuch) between 12th and 15th June with a peak on 13th June. Also, the southern half of Saurashtra (Mahuva, Bhavnagar, Viraval, Amreli, Somnath, Junagarh, Rajkot) and Central Gujarat (Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Vallabh Vidhyanagar) are poised for a spell of heavy rains between 13th and 15th June.
Most parts of Gujarat have received hefty showers outside Kutch in the first ten days of June. Saurashtra is having large rain excess by 308% and Gujarat by 40% from 01st to 10th June. Stations like Ahmedabad and Bhuj have far exceeded their monthly normal by recording 115mm and 42mm against the normal of 80mm and 35mm respectively. A very significant and unique weather system is persisting over Gujarat and neighborhood for the last two days causing the rainfall activity.
A lesser-known weather system ‘Mid Tropospheric Cyclone’ (MTC) is marked over Gujarat and South Saurashtra. MTC is a cyclonic circulation in the medium levels of the atmosphere and is mostly seen over this region after the monsoon gets established over the country. This feature has a tendency to remain quasi-stationary for many days. The present circulation over Gujarat is somewhat akin to MTC and has resulted in heavy rainfall in some pockets of the state. This cyclonic circulation is likely to shift over South Gujarat and adjoining the Northeast Arabian Sea. Accordingly, a strong surge is likely to set in over Konkan and South Gujarat resulting in heavy rainfall for the next few days. Pre- Monsoon heat with temperature in excess of 35deg will remain to confine to Kutch only and the rest of Gujarat will observe suppressed mercury hovering around mid-thirties for the next few days.